Scenarios and Strategic Foresight (SSF)

Área

AC Gestão > UC Optativas

Activa nos planos curriculares

Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão > Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas > Scenarios and Strategic Foresight

Management > Management > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas > Scenarios and Strategic Foresight

Gestão > Gestão > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas > Scenarios and Strategic Foresight

Finanças > Finanças > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas > Scenarios and Strategic Foresight

Economics > Economics > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas > Scenarios and Strategic Foresight

Economia > Economia > 1º Ciclo > Unidades Curriculares Optativas > Scenarios and Strategic Foresight

Nível

1º Ciclo (L)

Tipo

Estruturante

Regime

Semestral

Carga Horária

Aula Teórica (T): 0.0 h/semana

Aula TeoricoPrática (TP): 3.0 h/semana

Trabalho Autónomo: 68.0 h/semestre

Créditos ECTS: 4.0

Objectivos

This curricular unit aims to provide a solid background in Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight, which is particularly relevant in the context of accelerating change, turbulence, uncertainty and unpredictability that characterizes current times. It favours tools that allow the mastery of operational aspects through simulations. In particular, this curricular unit provides students with the tools to:

- Understand Strategic Foresight theoretical and methodological bases and the various ways of trying to anticipate the future;
- Seize the concept of Scenario as an instrument for simulating possible futures;
- Understand the centrality of uncertainty as Scenarios' raw material;
- Understand how Foresight and Scenarios are key for corporate strategy;
- Operate key concepts of Strategic Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios;
- Apply the concepts and techniques that integrate the main methodologies of construction of Scenarios.

Programa

1. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: origins, principles and key concepts.
- The Foresight concept. Forecasting versus Foresight.
- Strategic Foresight: principles, objectives and schools of thought.
- Uncertainty management and organizational learning: the essential role of Foresight in Strategy.

2. Horizon scanning, trends, megatrends uncertainties, wild cards and weak signals.
- Key concepts in action (hands-on simulation).

3. Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox.
- Techniques and tools for creativity and innovation.
- Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key factors.
- Techniques and tools for the identification and analysis of key actors.

4. Developing Scenarios. Scenarios as the main Foresight tool.
- Scenarios: concept, process and methodological characteristics.
- The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building (?the Shell School?). Hands-on simulation.
- Other Scenario Planning schools.
- Michael Porter?s Industry Scenarios.
- The Probabilistic Modified Trends School.
- La Prospective (the French Foresight School) and Morphological Analysis. Hands-on simulation.

5. From scenarios to organizational outputs. From anticipation to strategy / from anticipation to action.
- Implicationsandoptions.
- Exploring Scenarios using different Strategy tools. Hands on simulation.

6. Designing and leading Foresight and Scenario Planning processes.

Metodologia de avaliação

Exame final: 50%

Trabalho de grupo: 40%

Participação nas aulas: 10%

Bibliografia

Principal